Rangers/Yankee's chances

Looks like I made some mistakes in the rotations. Fixing that though, Rangers have a 3-1 lead. Do the Yankees really have a shot?

Game 5	Sabathia	Wilson	3/5
Day off
Game 6	Hughes	Lewis	1/2
Game 7	Pettite	Lee	1/5

So what am I taking into account? Well, first Tex is gone. Despite his 0-fer, I belive it is a slight downgrade in the Yankees offense. Swisher at first also produces a downgrade in their defense. Sabathia and Wilson with the Yankees at home makes me favor the Yankees slightly, but Wilson is underrated. Hughes/Lewis basically get the same odds as before. Lee versus Pettite played out as predicted. Pettite has to be perfect to beat him but will make a mistake or two, while Lee has a really good chance to only make one all night and a good chance to make none.

Yankees Win 4-3	3/50
Rangers Win 4-1	20/50
Rangers Win 4-2	15/50
Rangers Win 4-3	12/50

So there you go, I feel like the Yankees have a 6% chance to win this. Time to think about the NL.