King Felix wins Cy!

I would have no problem with Lee or Weaver winning it either. Anybody else that should have been in the conversation? Second tier for me was Marcum, Sabathia, Price, Lester, Verlander, Lewis, and some others depending on where you draw the line.

Uggla to Braves!

From USA Today

Uggla for Infante and Dunn. Good deal? How much better are the braves?

Free agent destinations: Derek Jeter

Question, is there anyplace Derek Jeter could play besides the Yankees? I have a few ideas. For one, he's a better hitter than people in WAS, KC, OAK, PIT, TB, CIN, TEX, LAA, MIL, BAL. Of those teams, I'd remove TEX, MIL, TB, WAS, and LAA because they seem to be betting on their young shortstops to develop. I'd remove KC, OAK, PIT for money reasons.

Of those that are left, only CIN and BAL would seem like teams who could afford a player of Jeter's stature. The Reds declined Cabrera's option, which almost makes me think they want to go young and cheap no matter how much they risk the offensive production. Baltimore seems to be rebuilding, and betting on an aging player may not be a move they would consider. SF has a hole if they don't like Uribe, but for some reason I can't see SF paying big bucks for a shortstop.

So how much do the Yankees end up paying Derek Jeter?

Rangers/Giants?

So, now that the league championships are settled, what are the opinions on Rangers/Giants?

I personally like Lee over Lincecum in Game 1. I like Hamilton, Murphy, and Moreland against Lincecum more than I like anybody against Lee. Lincecum should still pitch well against Texas, but seeing him give up 3 in 7 is not unlikely.

I like Cain over Wilson in game 2, but I may be higher on Cain than most. He should be susceptible to the Long ball in Arlington, but in San Fran I believe he can produce. Should be another good game.

Sanchez/Lewis in Game 3. Lewis is vulnerable to lefties, but outside of Huff, I think he can make a good matchup with the Giants lineup. If Sanchez can't strikeout this lineup, then I think Texas can get it done with Hamilton and Vlad and Cruz. Hamilton is not great against lefties, but he is protected by Vlad and Cruz, who can mash them.

Game 4, maybe nobody benefits from SF's lineup more than Tommy Hunter. He seems to struggle to get lefties out, and is vulnerable to the long ball from both sides. Keeping guys off base for the long balls give Texas a chance. Bumgardner has to figure out a way to get the righty heavy lineup of Texas to stay in the yard. Expect the difference in this game to be how many men are on base when the long balls fly.

I don't really want to call any game, but I like Texas, Giants, Texas, Texas. Not by much in any game though. Game 3 is tough to call, and Game 4 seems like a crapshoot.

Rangers/Yankee's chances

Looks like I made some mistakes in the rotations. Fixing that though, Rangers have a 3-1 lead. Do the Yankees really have a shot?

Game 5	Sabathia	Wilson	3/5
Day off
Game 6	Hughes	Lewis	1/2
Game 7	Pettite	Lee	1/5

So what am I taking into account? Well, first Tex is gone. Despite his 0-fer, I belive it is a slight downgrade in the Yankees offense. Swisher at first also produces a downgrade in their defense. Sabathia and Wilson with the Yankees at home makes me favor the Yankees slightly, but Wilson is underrated. Hughes/Lewis basically get the same odds as before. Lee versus Pettite played out as predicted. Pettite has to be perfect to beat him but will make a mistake or two, while Lee has a really good chance to only make one all night and a good chance to make none.

Yankees Win 4-3	3/50
Rangers Win 4-1	20/50
Rangers Win 4-2	15/50
Rangers Win 4-3	12/50

So there you go, I feel like the Yankees have a 6% chance to win this. Time to think about the NL.

Correct odds for Yankees/Rangers matchup?

Trying to put together an understanding of what to expect from the series. Here's the matchups I have with the odds I'm placing of a Yankees victory:

Game 1	Sabathia	Wilson	2/3
Game 2	Pettite	Lewis	1/2
Day off
Game 3	Hughes	Lee	1/10
Game 4	Sabathia	Hunter	4/5
Game 5	Burnett	Wilson	1/2
Day off
Game 6	Pettite	Lewis	1/2
Game 7	Sabathia	Lee	1/5

The end result for me is that this is much closer a series than any Yankee fan wants to admit, and that the rotations match up quite well. Home field advantage for the Rangers may even this up.

The chance of going 2-0 for the yYankees is 1/3, while the chance for the Rangers is 1/6. Putting the odds post Lee at

Yankees 3-0	2/60
Yankees 2-1	23/60
Rangers 2-1	26/60
Rangers 3-0	9/60

Look for the Rangers to have the lead after 3. Post game four though:

Yankees 4-0	8/300
Yankees 3-1	132/300
Tied 2-2	125/300
Rangers 3-1	26/300
Rangers 4-0	9/300

Yankees look in good shape. If the Rangers can win 2 out of the first three though, look out New York. Looking at 2-2 with an edge to the Rangers, and a 1/4 chance of winning it before Lee gets the hill again against a second three day rest for Sabathia.

Jason Heyward's monthly splits

		G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April		22	75	10	18	3	0	6	19	13	26	0	0	.240	.360	.520	.880
May		25	86	19	29	7	3	4	19	16	10	3	2	.337	.453	.628	1.081

A lot of crazy splits are happening all over baseball, but how about Jason Heyward? Too early to crown him rookie of the year, but where would the Braves be without him?

Big Money For Howard

The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year contract extension worth at least $125 million. Howard would make $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and then $25 million in 2014-2016. In case the math doesn't add up the Phillies hold an option in 2017 for $23 million with a guaranteed $10 million in a buyout.

Howard is 30 but its hard to argue with his production. The former MVP averaged 49.5 home runs and 143 RBI over the past four seasons in that shoe box they call Citizens Bank Park.

I'm not sure anyone is worth an average salary of $23 million per year in the current economic climate (yes even Twins catcher Joe Mauer) but what I wonder is what does this say about the contract the Cardinals will need to give Albert Pujols?

Pujols is a few months younger than Howard but has nearly 700 more games under his belt. Pujols is a better hitter (.333 career batting average to Howard's .279) and has a career OPS nearly 100 points higher (1.054 against Howard's .956).

Dare I say Pujols may get $30 million a year after Mauer and Howard each signed for an average salary of $23 million per season.

Beautiful Day

Spring must be in the air for this gorgeous Opening Day. Plenty of excitement last night as the Yankees' bullpen imploded (Damaso Marte with a stellar outing) and a near full slate of action today.

I'm happy it's officially baseball season again and that Albert Pujols never seems to disappoint (2 HRs).

Hughes Gets Fifth Spot In Yankees Rotation

Phil Hughes has won the competition to be the fifth starter in the New York Yankees rotation. Most figured it would be either Hughes or Chamberlain from the get go, but a rough start to the spring complicated by the flu put Joba behind early on.

Joe Girardi said the competition wasn’t limited to just those two players, but no one really expected Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves or Chad Gaudin to get the nod.

Gaudin ended up being cut, and will likely end up in the bullpen which is severely shorthanded due to injury at the moment. Gaudin had a bad spring, but could he be worth a look for a starting job? Could he be a better option than Vin Mazzaro?

Mitre and Aceves will likely stay on the roster in New York as long relievers, a role which both have shown they can fill adequately.

Chamberlain, on the other hand, is going to end up back in the pen and will be used as a set up man, with his long term outlook entirely up in the air. Some want him to be groomed to take over for Mariano Rivera, thinking that Joba can be the next great closer. The Yankees aren’t ruling anything out and keep referring to him as a starter. Certainly he could be a starting pitcher for any number of teams, including the Yankees.

If Phil Hughes starts to struggle, how long of a leash do the Yankees give him? Do you give the fifth spot back to Joba?

What if Pettitte gets sore and needs a day off, who do you call in to make the start? Aceves or Mitre? Or do you bring in Joba?

Can a guys like Hughes and Chamberlain develop into the pitchers they have the potential to be if they’re switching back and forth between starter and reliever, or do they need to pick a role and stick with it? If you’ve watched both of these guys pitch in starting roles and in relieving roles, each of them has two different sides. Depending on the role, they’re throwing different pitches at different speeds and oftentimes even their attitude appears different. Is it possible to go back and forth between these two personalities and still develop as a pitcher?

If both of these guys stay healthy this year, it will be interesting to see what happens and who can step up their game the most.

Article on comparing division projections

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/03/comparing_divis.php

Baseball analysts has a great summary of various projections for each division. The one thing everyone can agree on: Toronto, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh are out of it before it even begins.

No Surprise Out of Atlanta

What's been one of the worst kept secrets of Spring Training is finally no longer a secret. Braves manager Bobby Cox tabbed 20-year-old Jason Heyward to be the club's everyday right fielder.

Heyward has raked this spring (.366/.500/.537) and is widely considered the number one prospect in baseball. The 14th overall selection by Atlanta in 2007 made stops in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A last year producing at each level.

So with Heyward starting in RF the Braves lineup has a little more pop. His lefty stroke should complement Chipper Jones (3B), Yunel Escobar (SS), Troy Glaus (1B) and Brian McCann (C). I still don't know if the Braves have enough offense to overtake the Phillies in the NL East but putting Heyward on the major league roster can only benefit the club down the road.

Any Yankees fans taking offense to this ranking?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10172

I'm going to agree with a low ranking without trying to put together too much information. Basic summary, Montero is the only real prospect, a bunch of possible big leaguers fill out the system here and there, and the only other prospects are young, unproven, and years away.

Montero is a beast by almost any scouting report I read. So let's jump from this to a long-term yankee outlook. They appear to have few prospects that will help them. Here are the contracts they have on the books:

Arod 2017
Teixeira 2016
Sabathia 2015
Granderson 2013, 2014 option
Burnett 2013
Cano 2011, 2013 with options
Swisher 2011, 2012 option
Marte 2011, 2012 option
Posada 2011
Rivera 2010
Jeter 2010
Pettite 2010
Vasquez 2010
and then a whole lot of smaller contracts of shorter terms and less dollars
(Data from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html)

Montero seems blocked by Teixeira at first, and the DH role may possibly be filled by Arod a few years in the future. Jeter seems to be a lock to resign, but may only have a few more years at short. A lot of money seems to be coming off the books, but replacing Pettite and Vasquez may require some more big free agent signings, longer and more money than they may want to commit to less than star level pitchers.

What needs to be the Yankees long term plans right now, and how does Montero really fit? And are the Yankees waiting for some prospects to emerge from a group that does not seem ready to replace the performance currently being made (of which even if it could be duplicated certainly comes at a much higher risk)?

Mauer Gets 8 Year Deal With Twins

Joe Mauer signed an eight year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $184 million. It’s the fourth biggest contract in baseball behind two of Alex Rodriguez’s deals and Derek Jeter’s current contract. All in all it’s good for the Twins in that they didn’t have to go for a full ten year deal, but it’s still a lot of money and a big risk.

I think Minnesota did the right thing here, and signing Mauer was good for the team, good for the fans and good for the city. Everyone loves stories of a local kid making it in the big leagues and playing for the home town team. My impression is that the Twins may have overpaid slightly, but that was the compromise for getting an eight year deal versus a ten year deal. Hopefully for them, Mauer remains healthy.

Strasburg Impressive Early On

Number one pick Stephen Strasburg has been looking good in his first few outings of spring ball, not allowing any runs in his first two appearances. Cards manager Tony LaRussa commented that the kid was living up to the much ballyhooed expectations so far.

Initially, the sentiment was that the future of the franchise would start off in the minor leagues, with expectations that he might get called up to the majors before the season was over. Although we haven’t seen all that much of him to date, he’s made an impression on those watching him.

As a team, Washington is still pretty abysmal at this point. Regardless of who is pitching, the team is going to lose a lot of games. The team did make some improvements in the offseason, but it will be a struggle to even get out of the basement of the NL East.

Washington’s rotation might be marginally better than last year with the addition of Jason Marquis. Lannan’s still solid, but it’s hard not to see an untested Strasburg as a better option than most of the rest. Even with as little experience as he has right now, would anyone really rather have Olsen or Detwiler starting in place of the top pick?

The question in my mind is what kind of mental toughness does Strasburg have and would immediately being thrown to the wolves with little support be too much to handle all at once. Given their disappointing history, I’d imagine Washington fans would be a little kinder than those in New York or Philly, but I wouldn’t count on too much patience.

Personally, I think there’s nothing better than trial by fire. Guys need to learn to take the good with the bad and still give 100% regardless of whether or not things are going their way.

Strasburg will be given another start in spring training and with each pitch, eyes will be all the more focused on how he performs. Pretty soon the organization will have to sit down and make a decision as to how to handle the future of the franchise – let him dive right in or ease him along.

Anyone Else Think This Idea Is Crazy

Apparently Major League Baseball is talking about radical realignment. Granted its only in a committee and not much will ever come of it because the plans seems somewhat crazy.

In theory it would be great for the game to have more parity. But, then again, communism sounds great in theory. It hasn't worked so well in practice. Sorry Cuba.

Twins Could Be In Trouble

Twins closer RHP Joe Nathan might be added to the list of prime-time performers on the DL.

Coming off of surgery in October to remove bone spurs from his throwing elbow, the 35-year-old Nathan might be headed to the disabled list after feeling some soreness on Saturday.

Nathan in the six years he has been the Twins closer has been lights out. Arguably the Stony Brook product been better than Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Over the past six years Nathan has posted a lower ERA (1.87 to 1.90) and WHIP (0.95 to 0.99) than Rivera. Plus the Twins closer has higher K/9IP numbers (11.14 to 8.67) than the Yankees legend.

If Nathan is to be out for any period of time his absence will leave a huge void at the back end of Minnesota's bullpen. Since taking over the closer role for the Twins in 2004, Nathan posted only one season with a WHIP over 1.00 (1.02 in 2007) and saved at least 36 games each year.

The Twins were to be contenders for the always wide-open AL Central with the addition of 2B Orlando Hudson to the strong nucleus of reigning AL MVP C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. The pitching was expected to take another step forward in the young rotation with LHP Francisco Liriano another year removed from elbow surgery and the continued improvement of starters RHP Scott Baker (15 wins in '09), RHP Nick Blackburn (team-best 205.2 IP to go along with an 11-11 record last year), and RHP Kevin Slowey (10-3 before missing the final three months of the season with an injury).

Pitching woes

Looks like the DL watch has started:

Dice-k on the Red Sox
Angel Guzman on the Cubs
Webb on the DBacks

who else is already down?

Master and Apprentice

On a sunny Tuesday in Fort Myers there was a subtle yet palpable tension in the air as two pitchers, once oceans apart, took the field for the first time together.

The apprentice was nervous and happy, the master was honored and impressed, and they both were frustrating the poor catcher sentenced to work behind the plate.

Eighteen year old Eri Yoshida of Japan received her first direct coaching lesson from this generation's current head honcho, forty three year old Tim Wakefield. Wakey-sama watched the young apprentice throw her signature sidearm knuckle-ball and offered advice and encouragement. Eri was excited to meet her longtime idol and even more grateful for the tips she received.

I've got a soft spot in my baseball heart for Knuckle-baller throwers. The unpredictability they bring to the game means it's never boring. Yoshida is pitching in the independent leagues right now but hopes to catch on in the minors. There aren't a whole lot of knuckle-ball pitchers out there right now, although RA Dickey recently signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Could she be the next Hoyt Wilhelm, Phil Neikro or even a Dick Newsome? Probably not, but hey, it's always fun to watch those wacky pitches torturing batters and catchers alike.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Wakefield this year. Can the Sox rotation stay healthy and productive enough that the knuckler's services won't be needed, or will he end up bailing them out of a tight spot when Beckett gets injured, Dice K loses his stuff or Buchholz gets caught swiping laptops again?

PECOTA is high on Jesus Montero

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/supermen-arent-dead-yet/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-death-of-superman/

Davenport translations. Are they useful to us for individual players? If so, Jesus Montero is a Yankee's catching prospect that many believe will move to first base. Is he the heir apparent to Posada? Or someone who is blocked by Teixeira? CHONE and ZiPS projections seem to be much more reasonable, but there is no doubt the kid can mash, and may be a major league masher someday.

What long term plans do the Yankees currently have? How well would we evaluate them right now? What problems do we foresee in the future for the ballclub?

So how good can the Seattle Mariners be this year?

With a rotation that is looking like Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas, and Ian Snell; and a lineup Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley at the top; can the Mariners make the top of the AL West this year?

1B - Probably will be platooning Kotchman and Garko to protect their weaknesses. Guessed OPS 0.760
2B - Jose Lopez provides some pop, but his low on base percentage hurts them. Guessed OPS 0.740
3B - Chone Figgins. Guessed OPS 0.750
SS - Jack Wilson. Guessed OPS 0.650
LF - Milton Bradley. He'll either be in left or DH. Guessed OPS 0.850
CF - Franklin Gutierrez made strides at the plate last year. Guessed OPS 0.750
RF - Ichiro Suzuki. Hall of Famer. Guessed OPS 0.800
C - Josh Bard seems to be the preseason favorite to be here. Guessed OPS 0.700
DH - I'm betting the bulk of these at bats go to Ken Griffey Jr. Guessed OPS 0.750

Not a stellar lineup. They were worst in the American League last year with a 0.716 OPS. Bradley and Figgins help them out, but are not big contributors. I'm guessing that they can improve at the plate to about 0.750, which would put them in the middle of the league as far as lineups are concerned. Possibly anywhere from a 30 to 60 run increase over last year. So, do they have a shot to win the AL West this year?

HGH Testing Possible for Minor Leagues

After a British Rugby player was suspended for testing positive for HGH, the topic of testing in other sports has been popping up here in the US recently.

The NY Times reports that Bud Selig and Major League Baseball will begin HGH blood testing in the minor leagues sometime soon, with the hope that approval from the player's union can be obtained to start testing in the majors shortly thereafter.

The MLB Player's Association issued a response that was not at all unexpected, proudly proclaiming they are 100% against HGH use and unsurprisingly also against HGH testing. Similar positions have also been issued by the NFL and the NFLPA. In spite of conspiracy theories that the unions are out to protect their PED-using players, they do have some legitimate points. Firstly, one anecdotal case is not the same as adequate data. The single case of the rugby player has started this frenzy of calls for testing, but what needs to be looked at is the real data behind the test, not just the fact that we have one positive case. The other big point is that we are talking about blood testing, not a simple urine test. Blood testing is invasive, meaning someone has to stick a needle into your arm and there are risks associated with it (such as infection, although the risk is minuscule). I've never had mandatory blood testing done at any of my jobs, and I'd be a bit upset if anyone proposed it. Then again, I've never had a multi-million dollar contract to play games for a living, to be in the public spotlight and to be a role model for the youth of the nation.

Bud Selig is, for once, going about this the right way (hopefully having learned a thing or two from the steroid debacle.) The steroid era in MLB indelibly marred the image of the sport and it happened on Selig's watch. Selig's insinuations that he didn't know what was going on ring about as true as Rafael Palmiero's insistence that he only took B12 shots. Now that Selig is under the microscope and still catches heat for the substance abuse happening in the sport, he's forced to change tactics.

The new plan is to spring testing on the minor league players, most of whom are not part of the player's association. Baseball is free to get the ball rolling and start testing these non-unionized players. After a period of time, if the program appears to be working, it will be easier to pressure the union to approve testing in the major league. Despite all the resistance that MLBPA will put up, I believe that testing is inevitable.

Listening to Myers and Hartman show yesterday, one of their baseball experts threw out the prediction that "whatever the number of steroid users you think there are or were, the number of HGH users is triple. This is the free pass, the untestable substance, HGH is huge" and I have to agree.

Testing is coming. It will take a while before the MLBPA finally capitulates, but it's coming. This time it seems that Bud Selig is being proactive and taking action before the issue gets too far out of hand.

Here's a question

Is the rumored Joe Mauer contract, for ten years, a ridiculous length of time for top dollar?

(I think it is.)

Cubs Outfield Woes

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=4936522&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

Apparently Soriano is not 100%. Whose the favorite to replace him at the start (and I'm already figuring Nady and Byrd are the RF and CF respectively)? Fukudome? Fuld? Colvin? I would figure Colvin starts at AAA regradless of Soriano, Fuld and Fukudome battling in camp. Is Fuld a useful player who should get some time regardless of Soriano?

Looking at platoon splits, an interesting thing pops up to me. The Cubs outfield is rife with potential to split at the corners (ops vs. right, vs. left career)

Alfonso Soriano  0.828/0.863

Marlon Byrd      0.759/0.769
Xavier Nady      0.769/0.854
Micah Hoffpauir  0.796/0.638 - 307 at bats
Sam Fuld         0.764/0.869 - 103 at bats
Kosuke Fukudome  0.789/0.667

Some interesting things pop up. One, they all hit righties at about the same level. Nady can produce against lefties, and that probably earns him his right field spot when healthy. Hoffpauir and Fuld don't appear to hit well enough to displace Nady, Soriano, or Byrd. Fuld, as a lefty, may show a worse OPS against lefties over time. So where does this leave the cubs? Looking for lefties who can mash righties. There isn't a single free agent that makes sense here, Gary Sheffield being the closest thing.

There doesn't appear to be any room for Fuld if he can't hit lefties. But the look at their outfield shows that they may be weaker than most teams out there, and could significantly improve their playoff chances by upgrading any of the three spots. For comparison, here are the Cardinals and Brewers projected outfield splits:

Matt Holliday   0.949/0.875

Colby Rasmus    0.783/0.474

Ryan Ludwick    0.859/0.784

Ryan Braun      0.874/1.140

Jody Gerut      0.803/0.642

Corey Hart      0.775/0.844
 
While Byrd does not hurt them, both have significantly better left fielders and comparative right fielders without the injury risk. The Cubs do not fall behind by too much, but could use an upgrade to compete in the NL Central.

Chan Ho Park Signs With Yanks

Reports are making the rounds that Chan Ho Park signed a one year $1.2 million deal to play for the Bronx Bombers. Park had his moments last year in the Phillies bullpen and that's most likely the roll he'll fill in New York. The competition for the fifth spot in the rotation has mostly been seen as coming down to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, with Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre thrown in to make things look interesting but would the Yankees consider returning Park to a starting gig? It's possible but most likely he'll just get some innings coming out of the pen and will need to prove he can handle the AL. It's looking like either Gaudin or Mitre's days are numbered.

Damon has a contract

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4931560

Does Damon fit with the tigers? With an outfield that consists of Carlos Guillen, Ryan Raburn, Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, Wilken Ramirez, and Clete Thomas, Damon probably takes one of their spots away. What does the pecking order look like? Off the top of my head I would say Ordonez, Raburn, Damon, Guillen, Jackson. Only Jackson seems like a center field candidate.

I would say yes. Damon gives them a consistent bat and a healthy set of legs to play left and hit 1 or 2. How much he plays, I don't have an idea right now. Does it really shift the balance of power in the AL Central? I would have to say it improves them a win or two but does not significantly effect the odds for the Tigers.