Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Correct odds for Yankees/Rangers matchup?

Trying to put together an understanding of what to expect from the series. Here's the matchups I have with the odds I'm placing of a Yankees victory:

Game 1SabathiaWilson2/3
Game 2PettiteLewis1/2
Day off
Game 3HughesLee1/10
Game 4SabathiaHunter4/5
Game 5BurnettWilson1/2
Day off
Game 6PettiteLewis1/2
Game 7SabathiaLee1/5


The end result for me is that this is much closer a series than any Yankee fan wants to admit, and that the rotations match up quite well. Home field advantage for the Rangers may even this up.

The chance of going 2-0 for the yYankees is 1/3, while the chance for the Rangers is 1/6. Putting the odds post Lee at

Yankees 3-02/60
Yankees 2-123/60
Rangers 2-126/60
Rangers 3-09/60

Look for the Rangers to have the lead after 3. Post game four though:

Yankees 4-08/300
Yankees 3-1132/300
Tied 2-2125/300
Rangers 3-126/300
Rangers 4-09/300

Yankees look in good shape. If the Rangers can win 2 out of the first three though, look out New York. Looking at 2-2 with an edge to the Rangers, and a 1/4 chance of winning it before Lee gets the hill again against a second three day rest for Sabathia.

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