Hughes Gets Fifth Spot In Yankees Rotation

Phil Hughes has won the competition to be the fifth starter in the New York Yankees rotation. Most figured it would be either Hughes or Chamberlain from the get go, but a rough start to the spring complicated by the flu put Joba behind early on.

Joe Girardi said the competition wasn’t limited to just those two players, but no one really expected Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves or Chad Gaudin to get the nod.

Gaudin ended up being cut, and will likely end up in the bullpen which is severely shorthanded due to injury at the moment. Gaudin had a bad spring, but could he be worth a look for a starting job? Could he be a better option than Vin Mazzaro?

Mitre and Aceves will likely stay on the roster in New York as long relievers, a role which both have shown they can fill adequately.

Chamberlain, on the other hand, is going to end up back in the pen and will be used as a set up man, with his long term outlook entirely up in the air. Some want him to be groomed to take over for Mariano Rivera, thinking that Joba can be the next great closer. The Yankees aren’t ruling anything out and keep referring to him as a starter. Certainly he could be a starting pitcher for any number of teams, including the Yankees.

If Phil Hughes starts to struggle, how long of a leash do the Yankees give him? Do you give the fifth spot back to Joba?

What if Pettitte gets sore and needs a day off, who do you call in to make the start? Aceves or Mitre? Or do you bring in Joba?

Can a guys like Hughes and Chamberlain develop into the pitchers they have the potential to be if they’re switching back and forth between starter and reliever, or do they need to pick a role and stick with it? If you’ve watched both of these guys pitch in starting roles and in relieving roles, each of them has two different sides. Depending on the role, they’re throwing different pitches at different speeds and oftentimes even their attitude appears different. Is it possible to go back and forth between these two personalities and still develop as a pitcher?

If both of these guys stay healthy this year, it will be interesting to see what happens and who can step up their game the most.

Article on comparing division projections

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/03/comparing_divis.php

Baseball analysts has a great summary of various projections for each division. The one thing everyone can agree on: Toronto, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh are out of it before it even begins.

No Surprise Out of Atlanta

What's been one of the worst kept secrets of Spring Training is finally no longer a secret. Braves manager Bobby Cox tabbed 20-year-old Jason Heyward to be the club's everyday right fielder.

Heyward has raked this spring (.366/.500/.537) and is widely considered the number one prospect in baseball. The 14th overall selection by Atlanta in 2007 made stops in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A last year producing at each level.

So with Heyward starting in RF the Braves lineup has a little more pop. His lefty stroke should complement Chipper Jones (3B), Yunel Escobar (SS), Troy Glaus (1B) and Brian McCann (C). I still don't know if the Braves have enough offense to overtake the Phillies in the NL East but putting Heyward on the major league roster can only benefit the club down the road.

Any Yankees fans taking offense to this ranking?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10172

I'm going to agree with a low ranking without trying to put together too much information. Basic summary, Montero is the only real prospect, a bunch of possible big leaguers fill out the system here and there, and the only other prospects are young, unproven, and years away.

Montero is a beast by almost any scouting report I read. So let's jump from this to a long-term yankee outlook. They appear to have few prospects that will help them. Here are the contracts they have on the books:

Arod 2017
Teixeira 2016
Sabathia 2015
Granderson 2013, 2014 option
Burnett 2013
Cano 2011, 2013 with options
Swisher 2011, 2012 option
Marte 2011, 2012 option
Posada 2011
Rivera 2010
Jeter 2010
Pettite 2010
Vasquez 2010
and then a whole lot of smaller contracts of shorter terms and less dollars
(Data from http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html)

Montero seems blocked by Teixeira at first, and the DH role may possibly be filled by Arod a few years in the future. Jeter seems to be a lock to resign, but may only have a few more years at short. A lot of money seems to be coming off the books, but replacing Pettite and Vasquez may require some more big free agent signings, longer and more money than they may want to commit to less than star level pitchers.

What needs to be the Yankees long term plans right now, and how does Montero really fit? And are the Yankees waiting for some prospects to emerge from a group that does not seem ready to replace the performance currently being made (of which even if it could be duplicated certainly comes at a much higher risk)?

Mauer Gets 8 Year Deal With Twins

Joe Mauer signed an eight year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $184 million. It’s the fourth biggest contract in baseball behind two of Alex Rodriguez’s deals and Derek Jeter’s current contract. All in all it’s good for the Twins in that they didn’t have to go for a full ten year deal, but it’s still a lot of money and a big risk.

I think Minnesota did the right thing here, and signing Mauer was good for the team, good for the fans and good for the city. Everyone loves stories of a local kid making it in the big leagues and playing for the home town team. My impression is that the Twins may have overpaid slightly, but that was the compromise for getting an eight year deal versus a ten year deal. Hopefully for them, Mauer remains healthy.

Strasburg Impressive Early On

Number one pick Stephen Strasburg has been looking good in his first few outings of spring ball, not allowing any runs in his first two appearances. Cards manager Tony LaRussa commented that the kid was living up to the much ballyhooed expectations so far.

Initially, the sentiment was that the future of the franchise would start off in the minor leagues, with expectations that he might get called up to the majors before the season was over. Although we haven’t seen all that much of him to date, he’s made an impression on those watching him.

As a team, Washington is still pretty abysmal at this point. Regardless of who is pitching, the team is going to lose a lot of games. The team did make some improvements in the offseason, but it will be a struggle to even get out of the basement of the NL East.

Washington’s rotation might be marginally better than last year with the addition of Jason Marquis. Lannan’s still solid, but it’s hard not to see an untested Strasburg as a better option than most of the rest. Even with as little experience as he has right now, would anyone really rather have Olsen or Detwiler starting in place of the top pick?

The question in my mind is what kind of mental toughness does Strasburg have and would immediately being thrown to the wolves with little support be too much to handle all at once. Given their disappointing history, I’d imagine Washington fans would be a little kinder than those in New York or Philly, but I wouldn’t count on too much patience.

Personally, I think there’s nothing better than trial by fire. Guys need to learn to take the good with the bad and still give 100% regardless of whether or not things are going their way.

Strasburg will be given another start in spring training and with each pitch, eyes will be all the more focused on how he performs. Pretty soon the organization will have to sit down and make a decision as to how to handle the future of the franchise – let him dive right in or ease him along.

Anyone Else Think This Idea Is Crazy

Apparently Major League Baseball is talking about radical realignment. Granted its only in a committee and not much will ever come of it because the plans seems somewhat crazy.

In theory it would be great for the game to have more parity. But, then again, communism sounds great in theory. It hasn't worked so well in practice. Sorry Cuba.

Twins Could Be In Trouble

Twins closer RHP Joe Nathan might be added to the list of prime-time performers on the DL.

Coming off of surgery in October to remove bone spurs from his throwing elbow, the 35-year-old Nathan might be headed to the disabled list after feeling some soreness on Saturday.

Nathan in the six years he has been the Twins closer has been lights out. Arguably the Stony Brook product been better than Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Over the past six years Nathan has posted a lower ERA (1.87 to 1.90) and WHIP (0.95 to 0.99) than Rivera. Plus the Twins closer has higher K/9IP numbers (11.14 to 8.67) than the Yankees legend.

If Nathan is to be out for any period of time his absence will leave a huge void at the back end of Minnesota's bullpen. Since taking over the closer role for the Twins in 2004, Nathan posted only one season with a WHIP over 1.00 (1.02 in 2007) and saved at least 36 games each year.

The Twins were to be contenders for the always wide-open AL Central with the addition of 2B Orlando Hudson to the strong nucleus of reigning AL MVP C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. The pitching was expected to take another step forward in the young rotation with LHP Francisco Liriano another year removed from elbow surgery and the continued improvement of starters RHP Scott Baker (15 wins in '09), RHP Nick Blackburn (team-best 205.2 IP to go along with an 11-11 record last year), and RHP Kevin Slowey (10-3 before missing the final three months of the season with an injury).

Pitching woes

Looks like the DL watch has started:

Dice-k on the Red Sox
Angel Guzman on the Cubs
Webb on the DBacks

who else is already down?

Master and Apprentice

On a sunny Tuesday in Fort Myers there was a subtle yet palpable tension in the air as two pitchers, once oceans apart, took the field for the first time together.

The apprentice was nervous and happy, the master was honored and impressed, and they both were frustrating the poor catcher sentenced to work behind the plate.

Eighteen year old Eri Yoshida of Japan received her first direct coaching lesson from this generation's current head honcho, forty three year old Tim Wakefield. Wakey-sama watched the young apprentice throw her signature sidearm knuckle-ball and offered advice and encouragement. Eri was excited to meet her longtime idol and even more grateful for the tips she received.

I've got a soft spot in my baseball heart for Knuckle-baller throwers. The unpredictability they bring to the game means it's never boring. Yoshida is pitching in the independent leagues right now but hopes to catch on in the minors. There aren't a whole lot of knuckle-ball pitchers out there right now, although RA Dickey recently signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Could she be the next Hoyt Wilhelm, Phil Neikro or even a Dick Newsome? Probably not, but hey, it's always fun to watch those wacky pitches torturing batters and catchers alike.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Wakefield this year. Can the Sox rotation stay healthy and productive enough that the knuckler's services won't be needed, or will he end up bailing them out of a tight spot when Beckett gets injured, Dice K loses his stuff or Buchholz gets caught swiping laptops again?

PECOTA is high on Jesus Montero

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/supermen-arent-dead-yet/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-death-of-superman/

Davenport translations. Are they useful to us for individual players? If so, Jesus Montero is a Yankee's catching prospect that many believe will move to first base. Is he the heir apparent to Posada? Or someone who is blocked by Teixeira? CHONE and ZiPS projections seem to be much more reasonable, but there is no doubt the kid can mash, and may be a major league masher someday.

What long term plans do the Yankees currently have? How well would we evaluate them right now? What problems do we foresee in the future for the ballclub?

So how good can the Seattle Mariners be this year?

With a rotation that is looking like Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas, and Ian Snell; and a lineup Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley at the top; can the Mariners make the top of the AL West this year?

1B - Probably will be platooning Kotchman and Garko to protect their weaknesses. Guessed OPS 0.760
2B - Jose Lopez provides some pop, but his low on base percentage hurts them. Guessed OPS 0.740
3B - Chone Figgins. Guessed OPS 0.750
SS - Jack Wilson. Guessed OPS 0.650
LF - Milton Bradley. He'll either be in left or DH. Guessed OPS 0.850
CF - Franklin Gutierrez made strides at the plate last year. Guessed OPS 0.750
RF - Ichiro Suzuki. Hall of Famer. Guessed OPS 0.800
C - Josh Bard seems to be the preseason favorite to be here. Guessed OPS 0.700
DH - I'm betting the bulk of these at bats go to Ken Griffey Jr. Guessed OPS 0.750

Not a stellar lineup. They were worst in the American League last year with a 0.716 OPS. Bradley and Figgins help them out, but are not big contributors. I'm guessing that they can improve at the plate to about 0.750, which would put them in the middle of the league as far as lineups are concerned. Possibly anywhere from a 30 to 60 run increase over last year. So, do they have a shot to win the AL West this year?