With a rotation that is looking like Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas, and Ian Snell; and a lineup Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley at the top; can the Mariners make the top of the AL West this year?
1B - Probably will be platooning Kotchman and Garko to protect their weaknesses. Guessed OPS 0.760
2B - Jose Lopez provides some pop, but his low on base percentage hurts them. Guessed OPS 0.740
3B - Chone Figgins. Guessed OPS 0.750
SS - Jack Wilson. Guessed OPS 0.650
LF - Milton Bradley. He'll either be in left or DH. Guessed OPS 0.850
CF - Franklin Gutierrez made strides at the plate last year. Guessed OPS 0.750
RF - Ichiro Suzuki. Hall of Famer. Guessed OPS 0.800
C - Josh Bard seems to be the preseason favorite to be here. Guessed OPS 0.700
DH - I'm betting the bulk of these at bats go to Ken Griffey Jr. Guessed OPS 0.750
Not a stellar lineup. They were worst in the American League last year with a 0.716 OPS. Bradley and Figgins help them out, but are not big contributors. I'm guessing that they can improve at the plate to about 0.750, which would put them in the middle of the league as far as lineups are concerned. Possibly anywhere from a 30 to 60 run increase over last year. So, do they have a shot to win the AL West this year?
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Every preview of the 2010 Mariners contains some version of the sentence "With Lee and Hernandez, Seattle has one of the best 1-2 punches in the AL," which is true and makes the Mariners a scary team to face in the post-season. The problem for Seattle will be getting there.
ReplyDeleteDid Seattle really make improvements that will amount to more wins? Will Cliff Lee really do any better than the now departed Washburn or Bedard (who combined to put up some great numbers last year)? Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Vargas don't exactly inspire a great deal of confidence in the rest of the rotation, but RRS could be a pleasant surprise.
Offense is the Mariners Achilles heel and it hasn't improved enough to tack on more wins. Figgins is one the decline so expect a drop in OPS for him, although he's still an excellent hitter. Kotchman and Wilson will play solid defense but aren't the big bats that Seattle needs. Milton Bradley is a risk. For him to be productive you need to keep him happy and if he gets into one of his moods, he can bring the whole clubhouse down - quite a gamble.
Seattle is a team built around the front of its rotation and an excellent defense. They have a limited amount of pop at the plate with their four best hitters, but after that there is a severe drop-off in production. For the Mariners to contend the year they're going to need some of the back end guys to exceed expectations and the division favorite Angels to fall off the pace.
With Seattle being decent, Texas developing talent, and Anaheim being who they are, do you have any favorites in the West this year?
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