http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/supermen-arent-dead-yet/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-death-of-superman/
Davenport translations. Are they useful to us for individual players? If so, Jesus Montero is a Yankee's catching prospect that many believe will move to first base. Is he the heir apparent to Posada? Or someone who is blocked by Teixeira? CHONE and ZiPS projections seem to be much more reasonable, but there is no doubt the kid can mash, and may be a major league masher someday.
What long term plans do the Yankees currently have? How well would we evaluate them right now? What problems do we foresee in the future for the ballclub?
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I'm not an expert when it comes to Davenport. How accurate are they historically? How do they compare to the PECOTA projections for players already in the majors? I've got a gut feeling that there are too many intangibles to really make them worthwhile.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Montero, he's a bit of a mystery. The Yankees will need a catcher soon and they'll give him a chance to show whether or not he can be a permanent backstop at the major league level. With Texiera signed to a long term deal the Yanks don't really need another first baseman and if Montero is as good a hitter as people foresee then he would be wasted as Tex's backup. That leaves DH open, which isn't out of the question but it seems a team should find a spot in the field for him somewhere.
Is he really worse than Mike Piazza behind the plate? Does he have enough athleticism to move to third (although this doesn't help the Yanks with A-Rod locked up) or could he be the next Adam Dunn in the outfield? If the Yanks can't justify him as a backup 1B and DH, they could give him a shot out there.
My gut tells me the Pinstripers want to see how he handles the big leagues, keep an eye on any developments/injuries with the rest of their team and then trade him for a king's ransom.
I'll try to find a historical accuracy for the DT. A thing about Piazza, he seems to have been well regraded for game-calling from pitchers that worked with him. To call him worthless back there seems to only consider his ability to block and throw out runners. And evaluating catchers is still a rough field.
ReplyDeleteI think you are right in how the Yankees view him. Anyone who views a top of the line bat as a future long term catcher requires a level of both offense and defense that exists in the Mauers, Wieters, Poseys of the league. Hard to admit a wait and see attitude on a top prospect is the best solution, but it is the Yankees.
I don't think any scout sees him trying to fit in the outfield with his size. How great a player he ends up being may be up to his ability to stay behind the plate. What else are the Yankees planning on post-Posada?
From what I saw of Montero in the South Atlantic League in 2008 he can certainly hit. Every place he's been in the Minor Leagues the kid has raked and he's been young for those leagues. Montero showed good pop (17 combined HRs) as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League (High-A) and in the Eastern League (Double-A).
ReplyDeleteI think you're both right in that the big question with Montero is where does he play. Even two years ago when he was in Low-A ball the talk was that he couldn't become a big league catcher. Montero is a big kid who probably doesn't project behind the plate. But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some at bats this year at DH in New York and in 2011 is the full-time DH with Texeira at first for the Yanks.
A full time DH though? Can he really hit that much?
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