Apparently Soriano is not 100%. Whose the favorite to replace him at the start (and I'm already figuring Nady and Byrd are the RF and CF respectively)? Fukudome? Fuld? Colvin? I would figure Colvin starts at AAA regradless of Soriano, Fuld and Fukudome battling in camp. Is Fuld a useful player who should get some time regardless of Soriano?
Looking at platoon splits, an interesting thing pops up to me. The Cubs outfield is rife with potential to split at the corners (ops vs. right, vs. left career)
Alfonso Soriano 0.828/0.863
Marlon Byrd 0.759/0.769Xavier Nady 0.769/0.854
Micah Hoffpauir 0.796/0.638 - 307 at bats
Sam Fuld 0.764/0.869 - 103 at bats
Kosuke Fukudome 0.789/0.667
Some interesting things pop up. One, they all hit righties at about the same level. Nady can produce against lefties, and that probably earns him his right field spot when healthy. Hoffpauir and Fuld don't appear to hit well enough to displace Nady, Soriano, or Byrd. Fuld, as a lefty, may show a worse OPS against lefties over time. So where does this leave the cubs? Looking for lefties who can mash righties. There isn't a single free agent that makes sense here, Gary Sheffield being the closest thing.
There doesn't appear to be any room for Fuld if he can't hit lefties. But the look at their outfield shows that they may be weaker than most teams out there, and could significantly improve their playoff chances by upgrading any of the three spots. For comparison, here are the Cardinals and Brewers projected outfield splits:
Matt Holliday 0.949/0.875
Colby Rasmus 0.783/0.474
Ryan Ludwick 0.859/0.784
Ryan Braun 0.874/1.140
Jody Gerut 0.803/0.642
Corey Hart 0.775/0.844While Byrd does not hurt them, both have significantly better left fielders and comparative right fielders without the injury risk. The Cubs do not fall behind by too much, but could use an upgrade to compete in the NL Central.
Fukodome in right, Byrd in center and Nady in left. Fuld can fill in where needed. Even with injuries to Soriano they have enough depth to get through the season. The question is - do they have enough talent? Their outfield was a big concern and the addition of Nady wasn't a real game changer. They needed to make a bigger upgrade in the offseason but they didn't get it done.
ReplyDeleteIf St. Louis is healthy and Milwaukee finds pitching, it is going to be a very unhappy year for Cubs fans.
ReplyDelete"...it is going to be a very unhappy year for Cubs fans"
ReplyDeleteIs there any other kind of year when you're a Cubs fan?